Schlesinger, Husseini and Russian Production Begins to Decline
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2008-04-01 18:49.
Guest Post By Andre Angelantoni
In a wide-ranging speech on March 13, 2008, James Schlesinger starts out with:
“We face a challenge, an immense challenge, both foreign and domestic.
The question is our ability to respond effectively to that challenge and that remains a bit problematic. In his study of history, a 12-volume study of history, Arnold Toynbee examined I think it was 27 civilizations and why some of them had failed, why they had collapsed and it was in response to a challenge that they could not handle, some specific challenge. And a question about which we might brood is whether the combination of energy and environmental challenges will be ones that we can handle, handle with severe damage or fail to handle.”
— James Schlesinger’s Speech at The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future - The Geopolitical Context of America’s Energy Future; Day 1, Part 3, March 13, 2008
He later points out:
“The National Petroleum Council, in its recent study…said that we will not be able to produce any more conventional oil after 2022, 2023, some 15 years out. Unlike the peakists, they do not attribute this to the limitation on resource but they attribute it to the limitation on access. But whatever the reason, bear in mind, we face a painful transition to the future in which we hit a limitation, a plateau as you were in the ability to produce crude oil and we might begin effectively to start making adjustments to that transition now rather than later.
Think of it in the large. We are producing 86 million barrels a day. We have a present decline curve of 5 per cent, 4.5 per cent. If you look out to 2030 and if you assume, as the EIA does, that conventional oil will rise to about 105 million barrels a day, that means that we must find or develop, given the decline curve and the higher aspirations, the equivalent of nine Saudi Arabias. I think the probability of being that successful is very low.”
I recommend that everyone listen to the whole speech (45 min).
Also, see an excellent 10-minute clip of Sadad Al-Husseini, former VP Exploration of Saudi Aramco discuss oil yesterday on CNBC.
At around 5:50:
Husseini: “Conservation is probably the best solution in the short term.”
CNBC: “Kind of hard to get there though before prices get to an elevated level where there is a motive, correct?”
Husseni: “There should be a motive right now and if it’s not being felt yet, it will be felt probably soon, in the summer or later in the year.”
Sadad Al Husseni on CNBC Video
Finally, Russia has begun its decline:
“Now we’re saying the production rate is falling this year. This is not a bogeyman, unfortunately, this is real,” says Yuri Trutnev, Russia’s Natural Resources Minister.
In a wide-ranging speech on March 13, 2008, James Schlesinger starts out with:
“We face a challenge, an immense challenge, both foreign and domestic.
The question is our ability to respond effectively to that challenge and that remains a bit problematic. In his study of history, a 12-volume study of history, Arnold Toynbee examined I think it was 27 civilizations and why some of them had failed, why they had collapsed and it was in response to a challenge that they could not handle, some specific challenge. And a question about which we might brood is whether the combination of energy and environmental challenges will be ones that we can handle, handle with severe damage or fail to handle.”
— James Schlesinger’s Speech at The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future - The Geopolitical Context of America’s Energy Future; Day 1, Part 3, March 13, 2008
He later points out:
“The National Petroleum Council, in its recent study…said that we will not be able to produce any more conventional oil after 2022, 2023, some 15 years out. Unlike the peakists, they do not attribute this to the limitation on resource but they attribute it to the limitation on access. But whatever the reason, bear in mind, we face a painful transition to the future in which we hit a limitation, a plateau as you were in the ability to produce crude oil and we might begin effectively to start making adjustments to that transition now rather than later.
Think of it in the large. We are producing 86 million barrels a day. We have a present decline curve of 5 per cent, 4.5 per cent. If you look out to 2030 and if you assume, as the EIA does, that conventional oil will rise to about 105 million barrels a day, that means that we must find or develop, given the decline curve and the higher aspirations, the equivalent of nine Saudi Arabias. I think the probability of being that successful is very low.”
I recommend that everyone listen to the whole speech (45 min).
Also, see an excellent 10-minute clip of Sadad Al-Husseini, former VP Exploration of Saudi Aramco discuss oil yesterday on CNBC.
At around 5:50:
Husseini: “Conservation is probably the best solution in the short term.”
CNBC: “Kind of hard to get there though before prices get to an elevated level where there is a motive, correct?”
Husseni: “There should be a motive right now and if it’s not being felt yet, it will be felt probably soon, in the summer or later in the year.”
Sadad Al Husseni on CNBC Video
Finally, Russia has begun its decline:
“Now we’re saying the production rate is falling this year. This is not a bogeyman, unfortunately, this is real,” says Yuri Trutnev, Russia’s Natural Resources Minister.